Source : L’Echo
Translation : Club of Brussels

There remains only a decade to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and avoid the word effects of global warming. However Belgium has opposed voting for the climate law which demands it takes up its international obligations. Thus it can be said that political quarrels and the economic interests of certain lobby groups violate our fundamental right to a functioning planet and those of generations to come.

A change of direction

Global warming is not the only environmental issue caused by human activity. There is also the destruction of biodiversity, dwindling ressources and environnemental pollution. These environmental emergencies demand demand a profound paradigme change, from the mode of production to consumption. The way of ‘running the household’, the economy, has to be questioned.

The environmental problems can be added to a list of societal issues that are as crucial. The job market has become more precarious and inequality is on the rise. The historical breadth of accumulated debt has made the financial system very vulnerable. The aging population, the changing nature of work, the renovation and construction of sustainable infrastructure bring forth large costs. The list is long.

These historical challenges cannot be resolved in a liner manner (one problem = one solution). We will have neither the time nor the money to do this. In contrast, we propose multiple solutions, systemic, that respond simultaneously to multiple issues, finally creating an ecosystem of solutions accelerating the learning curve and positive impact.

Instead of prohibiting, disincentivize

Based on the slowness and the hypocrisy of the politicians who are responsible, we imagined the measures that would need to be implemented. Based on our research and the expertises of our various profiles, we have built through collective intelligence several systemic solutions.

We suggest, for example, the introduction of a ‘green GDP’ as a new indicator of a country’s health and to lead politics in consequence: taxing ship fuel, plane fuel and other harmful components as well as production and importation relative of their carbon footprint. By building up on this powerful basis that is the voluntary modification of relative prices in order to internalise indirect effects – disincentivizing instead of prohibiting – allows renewable energies to prosper. For example, disincentivizing company cars will make a ‘mobility package’ more attractive.

In regards to agriculture, what appears to be the most important is to diminish subsidies of the PAC dedicated to chemical industrial agriculture and to support projects that favour local biodiversity, agro-ecology and the rehabilitation of degraded land. One of our experts developed in regards to this a model of local production of vegetable proteins. Experimented already in a distillery, re-planting as part of a crop rotation system demonstrates a return that is twice as effective as intensive agriculture. These methods create a useful and sensible labor. Produce very rich in protein could also directly feed the cattle and aquaculture industry.

Moving upstream

The reimbursement of preventive medicine by social security is equally a multiple solution. The free sessions and coaching aimed at individuals and groups on risk prevention will be both a social and financial gain : decrease in future costs linked to curative healthcare, better mental and emotional health, lessening of stress and burn-outs and improvements in employment.

Other examples of propositions: provide a cultural service of 6 months for those not working – after their studies – to facilitate their orientation, social inclusion, and to improve the innovation and the creativity of the youth, reduce isolation or even facilitate multi cultural and generational interaction, all while improving the skills and futures of job seekers. An annual reminder for the other generations could also be possible, with an emphasis on those 50+.

All of these propositions are systemic ; they resolve multiple problematic issues, costing less while being more effective. This is why we think that this methodology must become popular and used by policy makers.

But… There is an essential requirement for this to succeed: the projects have to be led by people who are authentic and in service of common progress, people who have begun to really work on their personal conscience. Otherwise everything will ring hollow, and at the first attempt the projects will stall.

 

Workshop participants : Sarah Zamoum, Theophile Lienhardt, Julie Verhulst, Christian Ghymers, Michel de Kemmeter, Michèle Pasture, Antoine Arnould, Benoît de Bellefroid, Sven Van Kerkhoven, Bruno Arnould, Thibault de La Motte.

Publié dans l’Echo le 23 juilet 2019
Read the English version

Il reste une décennie pour réduire nos émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 50 % et éviter les pires effets du réchauffement planétaire. Pourtant, la Belgique s’est opposée à voter la loi climat qui ne faisait que reprendre les obligations internationales. Ainsi, les querelles politiques et les intérêts économiques de certains lobbys bafouent notre droit fondamental à une planète viable et l’avenir des générations futures.

Changement de cap

Le réchauffement climatique n’est pas la seule perturbation environnementale causée par l’activité humaine : destruction de la biodiversité, épuisement des ressources, pollution de l’environnement. Ces urgences environnementales nécessitent un changement profond de paradigme, de mode de production et de consommation. La façon de « gérer la maison», l’économie, est totalement à remettre en question.

Ces problèmes environnementaux s’ajoutent à une liste d’enjeux sociaux tout aussi cruciaux. Le marché du travail se précarise et les inégalités croissent. L’ampleur historique des dettes cumulées rend le système financier très vulnérable. Le vieillissement de la population, la mutation des métiers, la rénovation et la construction d’infrastructures durables engendreront d’énormes coûts. La liste est longue.

Ces enjeux historiques ne pourront pas être résolus de manière linéaire (un problème = une solution). Nous n’aurons ni le temps ni l’argent pour ce faire. A l’inverse, nous proposons des solutions multiples, systémiques, qui répondent simultanément à plusieurs enjeux, afin de créer un écosystème de solutions accélérant la courbe d’apprentissage et d’impact positif.

Désinciter plutôt qu’interdire

Constatant la lenteur et l’hypocrisie des responsables politiques, nous avons imaginé des mesures à faire implémenter. S’appuyant sur nos recherches et l’expertise de profils divers, nous avons construit en intelligence collective quelques solutions systémiques.

Nous suggérons, par exemple, l’introduction d’un “PIB vert” comme nouvel indicateur de la santé d’un pays et de mener des politiques en conséquence: taxation du carburant de navires, de l’aviation et autres composants nocifs ainsi que des productions et importations en fonction de leur trace carbone. S’appuyer sur ce formidable levier qu’est la modification volontariste des prix relatifs pour internaliser les effets indirects – désinciter plutôt qu’interdire – permettrait aux énergies renouvelables de prospérer. Par exemple, désinciter les voitures de société rendrait plus attractif un “pack mobilité”.

Par rapport à l’agriculture, il nous semble pressant de diminuer les subsides de la PAC dédiées à l’agriculture industrielle chimique et de soutenir les projets qui favorisent la biodiversité locale, l’agro-écologie et la régénération des terres. Un de nos experts développe à ce propos un modèle de production locale de protéines végétales. Expérimenté dans des distilleries, la re-plantation en système de rotation de légumineuses a démontré un
rendement deux fois plus important que l’agriculture intensive. Ces méthodes créent de la main d’oeuvre utile et sensée. Les produits hyper riches en protéine peuvent aussi directement nourrir l’industrie bétaillère et l’aquaculture.

Agir en amont

Le remboursement de la médecine préventive par la sécurité sociale est également une solution multiple. La gratuité des séances, du coaching individuel et de groupe sur la prévention des risques serait un gain financier et social : diminution des coûts ultérieurs liés aux soins de santé curatifs, meilleure santé mentale et émotionnelle, diminution du stress et des burn-outs, amélioration de la mise à l’emploi.

Autre exemple de proposition : instaurer un service culturel de 6 mois pour les non-actifs – après les études – pourrait faciliter l’orientation, l’inclusion sociale, améliorer l’innovation et la créativité des jeunes, réduire l’isolement ou encore faciliter l’interculturalité et l’intergénérationnel, tout en améliorant les compétences des futurs demandeurs d’emploi. Un rappel annuel pour les autres générations pourrait aussi être possible, avec l’accent sur les 50+.

Toutes ces propositions sont systémiques ; elles résolvent plusieurs problématiques de front, coûtent moins chers et sont plus efficaces. C’est pourquoi nous pensons que cette méthodologie doit devenir populaire et être utilisée par les décideurs politiques.

Mais… condition essentielle de réussite: ces projets doivent être portés par des personnes authentiques et au service du progrès commun, des personnes ayant démarré un vrai travail de conscience personnelle. Sinon le tout sonnera creux et, à la première épreuve, les projets seront bloqués.

Les participants au workshop : Sarah Zamoum, Theophile Lienhardt, Julie Verhulst, Christian Ghymers, Michel de Kemmeter, Michèle Pasture, Antoine Arnould, Benoît de Bellefroid, Sven Van Kerkhoven, Bruno Arnould, Thibault de La Motte.

Source : L’Echo
Translation : Club of Brussels 

Academics who have gathered together under the Club of Brussels and the Extrapreneurs incubator have identified 26 challenges that our country will have to solve within the coming decade. It seems like that the bill is going to be expensive.

Target 2030

This is the year that has been set by Michel de Kemmeter, expert in economic transition, founder of the think tank Club of Brussels, and associate professor at Vesalius College. He believes that until then, without having taken the necessary measures, we will have to resolve several problems at the same time: natural disasters, pensions, energy transition, cybersecurity, long-term absenteeism, etc. For 3 months, with the help of half a dozen people, mostly academics, Michel de Kemmeter identified 26 issues … and quantified them. It has never been done like this before. For this, he and his colleagues have examined all the available reports from institutions, think tanks, NGOs, business studies, etc. And the results are staggering: 9.000 billion euros, more than 20 times the annual GDP of Belgium. “It was a shock for us too,” he said immediately. “And all these issues are converging, and will explode simultaneously, most of them before 2030. This has never been seen before.”

Let’s take for example changes in work, due to the upheaval of the labor market caused by of technological innovations. “We are now facing the largest job training in history of humanity: two-thirds of jobs will radically change. How can 20 times more people than that are there today be trained?” Cost: 38.5 billion euros, based on an estimate conducted by Agoria.

Another example: the renovation of buildings, “millions of square meters of public real estate, most of it is obsolete, to be knocked down or renovated,” according to this former real estate investor. The cost of which: 2.250 billion euros, a calcuated amount based on data from the Board of Buildings and the Vlaamse milieumaatschappij.

Absenteeism, long-term illnesses, burnouts, etc. – the world of work is in turmoil. Cost: 297 billion euros, according to data from economists and institutions like Inami and Gallup.

We also find the cost of a financial crisis that has been predicted by many (15 billion in 2008, according to the Court of Accounts), poverty following the collapse of pensions (172.8 billion), the recovery of our biodiversity (3.360 billion for Belgium, according to Giec, WWF and Greenpeace), etc. “All these figures are can be criticised, admits Michel de Kemmeter, but the methodology is defensible. And again, we have been able to quantify only 90% of our stakes.”

A Historic Window

And yet, should we give up? No, says our expert who says he is optimistic for the first time since he returned to Belgium two years ago, after having deployed his ideas all over the world. “This is the first time that a historic window has opened up: power is really in the hands of people and their entrepreneurial creativity. Both business leaders and the political world are terrified by the magnitude of these issues. Some companies are already on the right track. Our expert mentioned Permafungi, who recovers coffee grounds to turn them into mushrooms and whose waste produces natural fertilizer; Pairi Daiza and its holistic approach to animal, plant, architectural and economic cohabitation, as well as the “circularity” of its waste management; Hello Fresh’s ensuring sustainability all along its value chain; Beescoop and its cooperative network.

And Michel de Kemmeter also points out some ideas brought forth by citizens that have worked abroad. In Saillans in France or in Bregenz in Austria, places where authorities and inhabitants develope projects hand in hand. Argentina in the 2000s (“where employees have taken over factories abandoned by investors”). Or the American city of Detroit, devastated by the 2008 crisis. “We see emerging communities returning to the earth, cleaning up their environment, but also providing security and education, in short, reorganizing from the ground up the vital functions of society. It is through shock that communal creativity awakens, this collaborative intelligence that responds to needs: to live, to eat, to educate, to communicate, etc.” And the shocks are there,  staring right at us in the face. Advice for the public: brainstorm !

Publié dans l’Echo le 29 juin 2019
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Des universitaires réunis autour du Club of Brussels et de l’incubateur Extrapreneurs ont identifié 26 enjeux que notre pays devra résoudre lors de la prochaine décennie. La facture risque d’être salée.

Objectif 2030

C’est l’année que s’est fixée Michel de Kemmeter, expert en transition économique, fondateur du think tank Club of Brussels et professeur associé au Vesalius College de la VUB. D’ici cette année-là, estime-t-il, faute d’avoir pris les mesures nécessaires, il faudra résoudre plusieurs problèmes en même temps: les catastrophes naturelles, les pensions, la transition énergétique, la cybersécurité, l’absentéisme longue durée… Pendant 3 mois, avec l’aide d’une demi-douzaine de personnes, universitaires pour la plupart, Michel de Kemmeter a identifié 26 enjeux… et les a chiffrés. Pour cela, lui et ses collègues ont épluché tous les rapports disponibles venant d’institutions, de centres de réflexion, d’ONG, d’études d’entreprises, etc. Et l’ardoise est énorme: d’ici 2030, il faudra rassembler 9.000 milliards d’euros, plus de 20 fois le PIB de la Belgique. “Ça a été un choc pour nous, pose-t-il d’emblée. Et tous ces enjeux sont en train de converger, et vont éclater simultanément, le tout pour la plupart avant 2030. C’est du jamais vu.”

Prenons la mutation des métiers, due au chamboulement du marché du travail à cause des innovations technologiques. “Nous sommes face au plus gros chantier de formation de l’histoire de l’humanité: deux tiers des métiers vont muter. Comment former 20 fois plus de personnes qu’aujourd’hui?” Dont coût: 38,5 milliards d’euros, selon une estimation basée sur une étude d’Agoria.