Beci – Comment mener avec intelligence humaine l’intelligence artificielle ?

Publié dans Beci le 8 mai 2019

Cet article est la version longue et originale de notre carte blanche à paraître dans la presse. Il s’agit d’une part d’un travail de cartographie des études existantes sur l’impact de la digitalisation sur le marché du travail ; et d’autre part, d’un résumé des solutions émises par le collectif d’experts du Club of Brussels lors d’un des nos ateliers.

Le phénomène de digitalisation est sur toutes les lèvres tant il impacte et risque d’impacter le marché du travail. Souvent présenté comme la 4ème révolution industrielle, l’apparition des machines intelligentes, des appareils mobiles et connectés, et l’explosion des big datas modifient profondément notre travail et nos relations sociales. La convergence de ces nouveaux facteurs entraîne l’émergence de nouveaux business model [1] et une robotisation accélérée de tâches de plus en plus complexes [2].

Les études prospectives évoquent des chiffres qui font froid dans le dos. Frey et Osborne estiment que 54 % des emplois actuels en Europe risquent d’être automatisés d’ici 2030 [3]. Et pour les emplois restants, la moitié des tâches serait transformée. Cependant, l’impact est difficilement quantifiable et prévisible tant il dépend de paramètres divers. Ceci explique en grande partie les fortes divergences de prospectives entre les différentes études. Ainsi, selon l’IWEPS seulement 11% des emplois wallons actuels risquent de disparaître [4]. Pour l’OCDE, 14% des emplois des pays membres sont concernés ; 9% pour la Belgique si l’on se réfère à cette même étude [5]. Enfin, le dossier Mckinsey jobs lost jobs gained [6] détaille plus largement les paramètres de mutation qui déterminent l’impact du digital. Ainsi leurs experts sont plus prudents : entre 0 et 30 % des emplois risquent d’êtres automatisés avant 2030.

La technologisation est un processus dont l’ampleur ne peut être connue avec précision et exactitude. Elle s’inscrit dans un contexte donné et interagit avec des facteurs multiples d’où l’importance d’une approche systémique.

1. Se former 18 mois à un métier qui n’existe pas encore ?

La digitalisation des tâches et l’automatisation des emplois ne sont seulement possibles que si la population y est formée. A ce propos, Agoria a publié un dossier très pertinent : 310.000 personnes devront changer de secteur à l’avenir ; ils devront pour ce faire suivre un recyclage allant jusqu’à 18 mois [7]. Certes, nombreux seront ravis d’apprendre, de changer de voie, de ne pas tomber dans l’ennui et la routine. Mais d’autres, éreintés par le travail – le nombre de burn-out, de stress, d’anxiété explosent et l’hégémonie digitale a tendance à amplifier ces états – ne voudront pas se former intensivement à des compétences technologiques qui n’existent pas encore.

2. La technologie au service du bien commun

L’ampleur des conséquences de cette nouvelle révolution industrielle dépend également du type d’innovation mais aussi du rôle que l’on leur attribuera. Aujourd’hui quelques entreprises monopolistiques détiennent et exploitent les données et génèrent des capitaux gigantesques. Pourtant, elles ne contribuent guère au bien commun : empreinte écologique élevée, taxation faible ou nulle, détournement d’informations personnelles, intrusion dans la vie privée, manipulations diverses. A l’inverse de cette logique, si nous voulons des modèles économiques durables, la technologie doit être mise au service du progrès et du bien commun. Par exemple, les big datas sont utiles lorsqu’ils permettent de gérer des stocks et de valoriser circulairement des produits alimentaires. Ce sont d’ailleurs des nouveaux métiers opportuns et permis par la digitalisation. La formation doit être repensée pour répondre aux opportunités de ce type d’emplois porteurs de sens: nouvelles pédagogies, formation aux soft skills, apprentissage sur le terrain. Si la technologie reste au service des prochains milliards de profit, nous allons droit vers “Big Brother”, tous aliénés de notre vraie nature.

3. Pas de technologisation sans acceptation sociale et changement de culture

Si la technologie est mise au service du progrès commun, elle aidera à l’acceptation sociale. Et l’on sait maintenant que le manque d’acceptation de la population – le sentiment de mise à l’écart, de différentiation – peut provoquer des conséquences démocratiques et sociétales d’envergure : il est la cause de la montée des populismes. Or, pour parer au populisme, il faut d’une part rétablir la confiance entre les citoyens et l’élite dirigeante qui apparaît de plus en séparée, déconnectée. Un moyen de retrouver cette confiance est la participation citoyenne. Et les moyens technologiques, les plateformes digitales, sont des outils exceptionnels pour permettre la mise en place de pratiques participatives et inclusives.

D’autre part, il est important que les décideurs eux-mêmes repensent le modèle actuel qui paraît de plus en plus déphasé par rapport aux attentes citoyennes et inadapté pour répondre aux grands enjeux.

Entrer dans cette nouvelle phase nécessite un changement de culture, de vision. Le changement se prépare, et il requiert la participation de toutes les parties prenantes : syndicats, entreprises, gouvernements, citoyens intergénérationnels. Alors que les réseaux sociaux jouent sur l’« émocratie » et développent des situations d’estime négative de soi, les citoyens doivent à l’inverse réapprendre à avoir confiance en leurs capacités.

4. Multiplicité de facteurs : l’intelligence du lien systémique

L’ampleur de notre dépendance au digital dépendra également de nombreux autres facteurs : le contexte et la compétitivité internationale dans un domaine sur lequel nous sommes dépassés par d’autres continents, l’Asie en tête ; le cadre légal et les lois contraignantes européennes, nationales ou régionales ; le chamboulement provoqué par le vieillissement de la population, notamment en terme de dépenses ; enfin, une dépendance technologique accrue entraîne également une augmentation exponentielle du risque de black-out, d’hacking, de bugs. D’où l’importance de comprendre les liens entre ces facteurs influents notre économie.

Certes, les nouveaux types d’économie induites par l’utilisation intensive des données, des machines intelligentes et des appareils mobiles pourraient accentuer les inégalités sociales, automatiser de nombreux emplois, abuser de nos informations personnelles ou représenter un risque de dépendance nocive.

Mais la technologie n’est-elle pas aussi une opportunité historique pour la création de nouveaux emplois valorisants, pour rétablir la confiance et l’acceptation sociale, pour être un catalyseur du changement et de la transition vers une société humaine, inclusive, holistique et respectueuse de la terre ? L’impact de la digitalisation sera en effet positif si celle-ci est contrôlée, sensée et garante du progrès et de l’inclusion de tous.

Par les personnes présentes au workshop sur la digitalisation : Marc Ruelle, Eve Calingaert, Catherine Pluys, Antoine Arnould, Henk Van’t Net, Michel de Kemmeter, Didier Lodewyckx, Marjolaine Gailly, Eric Hereman, Didier Van Rillaer, Thierry Pauwels, Francine Beya, Elise Tilmans, Benoît Abeloos, Christian Ghymers, Olivia Mariaule, Jenifer Desmet, Victoria Hingre, Patrick Versée, Benoît Pitsaer, Bruno Arnould, Koen De Leus, Tanguy De Lestré, Eliot Thielemans

Notes de bas de page :

[1] Par exemple, l’économie de plateforme et le travail ubérisé sont typiquement permis par des innovations digitales et l’exploitation de big datas et d’algorithmes.
[2] Conduite de véhicules, algorithmes, analyse du comportement des consommateurs, génération automatique de textes, etc. visent la rationalisation et l’optimisation de la production.
[3] Frey, Osborne, The future of employment : how susceptible are jobs to computerisation ?, septembre 2013.
[4] IWEPS, La digitalisation de l’économie wallonne, septembre 2018.
[5] OECD, The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries : a comparative analysis. 2016
[6] Mckinsey Global Institute, Jobs lost, jobs gained : workforce transitions in a time of automation, décembre 2017.
[7] AGORIA, Shaping the future of work, 2018

(English) Diplomatic World – The next chapter of western economy starts in Brussels

 By 2025, 1/3 of the jobs are going to disappear, and another 1/3 will completely change. It is the biggest shift in the history of economy since the industrial revolution. One difference: the speed. In 5-7 years, world economy will be unrecognizeable. Most companies and governments have no idea what to do, nor where to go. In the best case, they focus on digitalisation. With the vulnerability to hacking today, building whole businesses exclusively on robots, AI, IOT, and digital revolutions is very risky.

On the other hand, numerous new approaches to value creation are emerging everywhere – mostly under the radar. From Brussels, we have been gathering all these tendencies, mapping, clustering, analyzing and extrapolating them horizon 2025.

WHY BRUSSELS ?

It is the geographic center of Europe, the HQ of most lobbies, federations, Nato, European Union, and multinational companies. But above all, Belgium has a skill to deal with multicultural issues and multiple agendas, through a blend of germanic culture, latin and Anglo-Saxon, and 140 others – combined with a culture of humble hard work and global engineering (Belgium was the world’s second economic power till 100 years ago).

Belgians are welcome anywhere in the world, unlike some other nationalities. Embassies in Brussels are staffed by the best diplomats on the planet, with open lines with their heads of state. Moreover, all the good ideas pass through Brussels sooner or later. It is ideal to export new economic visions and models. The sandbox of those economic models will find their markets mostly abroad, as Belgium is quite conservative. Especially emerging economies with young populations, eager to learn and empower the next generation of humanist entrepreneurship serving global challenges.

A FUTURISTIC SANDBOX

We need to experiment and empower collaboration between the players who have the most resources to create change: large corporations. They start to realize, little by little, that they cannot innovate on their own. They will not be able to shift drastically before 2025. So, in short, they are big ships, aware of the iceberg, its size and position, but unable to turn the wheel in time. Two things should be done:

  1. Trim the ship for impact, get down to the basics
  2. Prepare the lifeboats.

The lifeboats are new businesses, based on the new paradigms (collaborative, serving multiple challenges), and they will be able to swim in between the icebergs. These new businesses should be crisis-proof, bringing new coherence between people and economic activities. They will thus be able to tackle historical challenges in systemic, instead of linear ways. A few examples: sustainable rental housing, waste recycling, next generation education systems, senior population and sustainable pension funds, illness prevention, sustainable agriculture and food, greening deserts, etc.

This experiment was started in Brussels. Half a dozen companies, twenty extrapreneurs of multiple backgrounds and generations, were trained on the next economic paradigms (24 days of action-training), hands-on creating the next generation businesses. In four months, they came up with new businesses, validated by stakeholders and market, all of them fully scalable. In combination with new systemic thinking and a top-down vision on the next generation macro-economic models, we have the DNA of transition.

We have to mobilize the early adopters of new ways of creating value – those who did try internal innovation, incubators, without substantial success. Those large companies are now ready to open the box and share their resources with others to create the next generation businesses. We exfiltrate them in a dedicated space, and train their managers – together with a next generation entrepreneurs – to a new economic philosophy with brand- new tools. The first experiment of Extrapreneurs in Brussels is now ready to be franchised and scaled up.

A NEW SCHOOL OF ECONOMIC THINKING – CLUB OF BRUSSELS

The next chapter of economic thinking is now being written all over the world. Thousands of experiments and studies are done and in process. We are compiling them with the “Club of Brussels,” and projecting economic vision on 5-10 years. We qualify and quantify job destructions and creations, and prepare a road book for governments to help their economies resist global recession, and facilitate the emergence of new economic spaces. Social economy, digital economy, sharing- and collaborative economy, green and circular economies are the big winners. Public authorities, services, trade, industry are the big losers (studies to be found in « Shifting Economy », Brussels 2017, by Mossay-de Kemmeter).

Thousands of studies have been made on economic transition, but only very partially. It is now time to put all of them together to create a new holistic vision on economy. Following the paradigm shits going on as we speak, it looks like public services will be made more efficient with digital tools, thus cheaper. Healthcare cost will go down, thanks to more prevention and education. Education will move to more peer-to-peer learning; it will be much more hands-on, efficient and cheaper. Mobility will be more shared and thus cheaper and with lower impact.

That culture will create much more societal value and rely less on public finances. We should quantify all these systemic shifts to make the figures work. Our taxes should lower, the value created should be higher, and thus global progress can be triggered. But we should not be naive. Such majors shift will take time. We can – at best – stimulate the creation of « islands of resilience », interconnect them, and inspire others to shift also. This global shift follows the logic of organic mutation. We will not wake up some morning, in a new world. Shift happens one by one, company after company, community after community, city after city. The beauty of it is that everyone of us can be part of it – nothing will be decided for us by some higher power.

Another good news is that there will be probably as many new jobs created in the new economic spaces, than jobs destructed in the old ones. Boring jobs will be replaced by empowering ones – much more in tune with peoples’ excellences. Over 75% of the people working do jobs they don’t like. Burnout and depression rise exponentially. No surprise. This is just a sign that we do something wrong… A new coherence is expected to empower people. On micro/ personal level, on company level, on national levels and on global levels. This is what Club of Brussels will map and calculate. Create an efficient tool to pilot our economies through this giant mutation.

PARADIGM SHIFTS AND COLLECTIVE CONSCIOUSNESS

The economic challenges are only the top of the iceberg. The true challenge is the shift in global consciousness. People start to realize they are one, on a planet which is their common « mother ». That they cannot go on killing each other day after day, and destroying their mother earth. Big words. But what does it mean? It is multidimensional. We are mutating as humanity. (1) From patriarchal societies to a combination of patriarchal and matriarchal, integrating as such, both polarities. Masculine and feminine. (2) Shifting from dependance models, based on fear, to autonomy models, based on personal power and love. (3) From hierarchies to ecosystems. (4) From linear models (exhausting people and planet) to systemic models (nourishing people and planet). (5) From formatting and automation to individual and unique empowerment. (6) From ownership models to shared and collaborative models. We can go on and on. Everything is shifting. The only way we can follow these, understand them and act coherently, is a personal choice of consciousness. Decide to go beyond appearances, and use your talents to serve common good. Beyond ego and possession. It is – in a way – to be individually and collectively reborn as a fully grown human being. Humanity is little by little leaving behind childish behavior. In economy, it has fundamental impacts, and the first movers, enlightened leaders, are economically very successful. The all will tell you the same kind of stories…

THE NEXT MODEL – SYSTEMIC, HOLISTIC AND PEOPLE-CENTERED

Humanity starts to realize it is a part of the (whole) specter of life. Humanity has the possibility to act consciously, unlike animal, vegetal and mineral reigns. As such, it has the capacity to connect reigns and to fulfill itself at its best potential. In its more mature behavior, humanity can inspire from the logic of nature, and implement optimal natural value creation. Studies show that collaboration on existing resources allow 4 to 5 times better (economic) results. Like in nature, with 100% efficiency and 0% waste. Those models have a new intelligence: systemics. It shows and empowers 3D connexions between stakeholders – answering needs and sharing resources on multiple levels.

Economy, in its basic etymology, « managing household », has multiple value creation loops. Monetary transactions only account for a small part of the economic domain. Systemics allow to map and empower those connexions. It also takes into account the positive or negative collateral effects of economic exchanges. Systemic human intelligence is located in the prefrontal brain. Its neurons are 3-dimensional, it has a creative interconnecting function – there where in the conditioned/ structured brain, the neurons are linear. Human beings only use around 10% of its brain capacity. Shifting to higher potential is key here, as a priority, before using Artificial Intelligence. The risk is that our IQ and discernment lowers by using more technology, without personal development and consciousness enhancement. Moreover, relying on too much technology will create a very new unexpected vulnerability of our businesses to unreliable and fragile technology. Hacking, fake news, electricity blackouts, or hyper complexity could cost entire companies. Very dangerous.

The next model will ask to develop the capacity of holistic view. Like walking up the stairs to the first floor, whilst water and mud is rising at the ground floor and everybody there struggles to survive. We need to develop the skill to see things from higher, as well as dive into concrete matters and make new systemic models work with natural intelligence.

A FEW SECRET INGREDIENTS

Of course, the whole operation has a series of ingredients for success. Constant humble personal development, constant research on new philosophies of value creation, learn from the most diverse horizons, search for coherence and alignment, be aware of emerging potential, understandable vocabulary and semantics, sense of timing, empowering systemic links, a strong and coherent validated methodology… in other words, a new enlighten leadership based as much on common sense than on sense of purpose serving common good. I know those people are there, sometimes under the radar. Maybe you too. Dare to come up with your deeper intuitions and fulfill your teams. It is the time to show and mobilize the best.

A STRONG VISION

The big « country » winners will be the countries with creativity, with young population, with a willpower to serve common good, cultures who are able to collaborate openly. The big employment winners in « economic models » will be, horizon 2025 : social business (will double), green economy (more than double), circular economy (also more than double), digital economy and robotisation will only gain +/-50%, knowledge economy will also gain around 50%, agro-ecology will tenfold. Sharing and collaborative economy will twentyfold – with the open question of employment and taxes… The big losers in employment will be services and trade (-50%), industrial agriculture (-60%), industry, energy and extraction will lose around 40%. Public services will lose between 10 and 70%, depending on the political choices made by their governments.

The next chapter of world economy could be written from Brussels, in collective intelligence with the best global visionaries and experts. Eclectic, we need sociologues, psychologues, scientists, next generation leaders, and even artists and spiritual leaders, to assist our expert economists. The outcome will be a true « Growth Explorer » to help governments to pilot the mutation of their economies. Coaching the emergence of the new. But let us not be naive, it will take decennia till the whole economy is tuned into a new and strong coherence. It will happen in stages, through the emergence of « islands of resilience ». Those can be cities, companies, communities, based on new vision, autonomy and personal leadership. The rest will be more and more based on fear, stress and dependance. Little by little, people will diverge from a system they cannot survive inside, and do their personal coming out, connecting purpose, passion and new expected competences – to participate in the most fascinating adventure in human history.

Michel de Kemmeter
www.extrapreneurs.orgwww.wiseholding.netmichel@uhdr.net